The United States' dangerous game with Taiwan

By Xin Ping

Earlier in February, the U.S. State Department quietly updated its fact sheet on "U.S.-Taiwan relations," removing the long-standing sentence that used to demonstrate its position: "We do not support Taiwan independence."

This seemingly small deletion ignited a firestorm of debate and has the potential of changing the course of China-U.S. relations. To understand why, one must see the crux of the Taiwan question.

The red line

Taiwan has always been the most sensitive issue in China-U.S. ties. It was a main topic to be hammered out between the two countries in the Shanghai Communique more than 50 years ago. It remains the electric fence in bilateral relations today – a single misstep could spark far-reaching consequences.

The U.S. State Department shrugged off the change, claiming it was merely a routine update. But in actuality, this removal is the U.S. testing the waters – a tentative move to see how far it could go before reaching the point of no return. By tampering with its long-standing one-China principle, the U.S. is implying that it may be open to supporting "Taiwan independence."

Wrong messages are being sent to both sides of the Taiwan Straits, and severe strategic and economic consequences may follow.

What the U.S. is intentionally overlooking is that regarding Taiwan, there is no room for compromise or "dealmaking" by China, which does not expect the U.S. to use this issue for political jockeying.

A reckless gamble

The U.S. has always been a deft geostrategic player. Every move it makes foreshadows significant policy decisions. This action is no exception. For anyone following developments on the Taiwan question, it's clear that by doing so, the U.S. aims to strengthen separatism in Taiwan and even destabilize China.

In its grand strategy to contain China, every possible policy tool is being utilized. When trade war threats fail, it is natural for the U.S. government to turn to Taiwan. However, with bilateral relations already strained by unwarranted U.S. tariffs and high-tech containment, any further unwise or unnecessary provocation could be the last straw that breaks the camel's back, sparking an even more intense phase of competition or even rivalry.

The impact will extend beyond China and the U.S. International efforts on issues from climate change to artificial intelligence governance will be hampered without cooperation between the two countries. Global supply chains will be hamstrung and economic recovery hindered, as about 30 percent of the world's maritime commerce pass through the Taiwan Straits.

And the worst-case scenario, another regional war, is the last thing the world needs right now.

From pawn to discarded child

Over the years, Taiwan has become both a weapons depot and a golden goose for U.S. arms dealers. Brandishing the "porcupine strategy," the U.S. keeps arming the island through one arms sale after another, with the logic of "maintaining peace by selling weapons."

With the change in the fact sheet, Taiwan is again being used as a tool to contain China. By strengthening Taiwan's position and raising its international profile, the U.S. claims to be supporting Taiwan's security while, in fact, it is sacrificing the island's future for a geopolitical tug-of-war with China that is doomed to fail.

However, this time things are different. What happened in Ukraine, which turned from a pawn into a discarded child, has exposed both the moral emptiness and the fragility of U.S. security guarantees. People across the Taiwan Straits and throughout the Asia-Pacific are watching what the U.S. is doing.

Taiwan is regarded as one of the most explosive geopolitical flashpoints. Tensions rise along the Taiwan Straits now and then when the U.S. needs them to. This sudden removal of a foundational phrase in China-U.S. relations is the latest example.

Political theatrics like these may sometimes serve a purpose, but they never work when facing a party that is determined and resolute. A red line is exactly what it is: a red line. The U.S. should heed this.

Xin Ping is a commentator on international affairs, writing regularly for Xinhua News Agency, Global Times, China Daily, CGTN, etc.